The monitoring data indicates that, the 42nd week of 2016, from October 17th to October 21st, the bulk commodity market continues strong into a “crazy” model, with 82.76% bulk commodity price rising compared to the previous week, only 12.07% falling, and 5.17% staying at the same level in the Bulk Commodity 58 Price List. In addition, the commodity price of the said week rises with an average increase of 1.14%, the largest weekly average increase since April. The bulk commodity price index (BPI) reaches its highest point, the same level with the first quarter of June 2015, since the beginning of the year.
The top-3 price increase commodity
diesel
styrene butadiene rubber
acetic acid
The top-3 price drop commodity
natural rubber (St.Ⅰ)
nickel (market)
live pig
The monitoring data shows that, the price rising commodity are mainly from energy sector with a total of 10 kinds, and the chemical sector with a total of 7 kinds, and the products with price increase over 5% are mainly energy products, the top-3 price increase products are diesel, styrene butadiene rubber, and acetic acid with 9.85%, 6.24%, and 5.90% increase respectively. The price drop commodity are mainly from nonferrous metal, 2 kinds, and agricultural products, 2 kinds, and the products with price drop of over 5% are mainly rubber and plastic products, the top-3 price drop products are natural rubber (St.Ⅰ), nickel, and live pig with 5.49%, 2.05%, 1.70% price drop respectively.
In the energy sector, all the products’ price rises except a drop of 1.46% for liquefied gas. In addition, the steel sector keeps rising with a price increase over 2% in seamless tube, cold rolled plate, and deformed steel bar, even a smallest increase of 1.14% for hot roll. Steel analysist, He Hangsheng, points out that, even though the present steel market continues strong, however, the steel market is still not stable seen from overall price callback of steel futures last week, and the steel price may begin to fall in the last week of October since the cut-capacity in steel industry has been closing at its end.
Industry analysis, Fan Yanxia, points out that, both the costs and policy factors cause the extended price increase of the world market, for example, the price adjustment window of refined oil products, and the tighter supply caused by environmental supervision in many domestic provinces and cities, in addition, the continuous rising trend of market is also an influencing factor as the price drop of one particular product will not affect the whole market rising trend.
Looking ahead, the key expert of China Commodity Develop & Research Centra (CDRC), Liu Xintian, believes that, the crazy market has been closing its end, and he also expects that there will be changes toward the last week of October, and the bulk commodity average price increase at the Bulk Commodity 58 List may contract to 1% with the rising and falling ratio of 6 to 4, and the nonferrous metal sector may maintain adjustment, and steam coal will be on the verge of profit or loss with a distinct market differences.